A-Shares: Run or Stay? PBOC's Big Move, Trillion-Yuan Trade, Surprise or Shock?

Friends, today the A-share market continued to open high and soar, climbing to another level.

Yesterday, the A-share market was filled with multiple positive news, and many people worried about a one-day rally, which led to them getting off the train early.

This is a confirmation of the saying: "When being beaten, they hold on tight, but when it rises a bit, they want to run."

In fact, this is because they have not yet understood the essence of this market outbreak.

From various aspects, this rebound is completely different from the previous days' big Yang line to lure more buying.

Everyone can even understand it as an enhanced version of the rebound during the Spring Festival; why is this time said to be an enhanced version of the 2635 point rebound?

Looking at the background of the rebound, the background of the 2635 point rebound includes active intervention to limit short selling, new policies stimulated by the new leader taking office, and of course, the profit effect brought by the rebound of small and micro-cap stocks that have been oversold; the reason why this rebound is an enhanced version is mainly based on the system of the 2635 point rebound.

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This time, the central bank and the securities regulatory commission and other departments have continued to release substantial benefits, and it is the real gold and silver of a certain team entering the market to buy up the rise.

For example, some of the institutional reforms introduced at the time of the 2635 point were unchanged, but this time the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, the interest rate on existing housing loans has decreased, the securities regulatory commission has issued market value management guidelines, and the central bank has provided liquidity support to financial institutions to buy stocks only, etc.

; these are all enhanced policies, which is the key point of the difference in the rebound, and will you still think it is a one-day tour?

Of course, for most people's transactions, it is the default to hold on when falling, and it is human nature to want to run when it rises a bit.

So, the stock market seems to have a low threshold, and many people can participate, but very few can continue to play in the stock market, which is the reality.

Referring to the previous index at 2700 points, too many people lacked confidence and patience.

I insisted on being bullish and waited for the Fed to cut interest rates and to see the actions of the domestic central bank.

Many people did not understand; those friends who have always insisted on not cutting meat at the bottom have recently insisted on it, and there are indeed fewer bearish people in my article's comments, which indicates that the market has given the best answer.

For today's market, the continued high opening and soaring has exceeded many people's expectations, but I emphasized again yesterday that today will continue to force the rebound, because once the sentiment turns to more buying, and funds start to enter, there will be an inertial outbreak.

Next, let's talk about the views on today's market.

Many people may start to be cautious, but I have a few details to say: 1.

The central bank has made a big move again before today's market, and the exchange rate also has a strong signal, how to see?

(1) First of all, today the central bank continued the 1-year MLF interest rate.

Last week, I told everyone in advance that the central bank would continue the MLF on the 25th, and the interest rate was reduced from 2.3% to 2%, continuing to cut interest rates to release liquidity for the market.

The central bank has been really hardworking these two days.

If the market does not rise again, it will really be unreasonable.

Now it's not about how much money has been released, but all the benefits are timely and implemented.

Only by firing every arrow continuously can it be effective, which is too meaningful for mobilizing the confidence of the bulls.

The securities regulatory commission just said yesterday that mergers and acquisitions and market value management, and last night there was immediately new news.

The central bank has continued to release benefits, and today it continues to cut interest rates to support the stock market; therefore, the index has continued to rise for six consecutive days, and the index has risen by more than 200 points in just six trading days.

Many people may not have realized it yet, and they have just found that the index has risen above 2900 points, close to 3000 points.

(2) Secondly, looking at the trend of the exchange rate market, the RMB exchange rate has broken through the 7 integer point.

Do you still remember that a certain institution said that the RMB exchange rate is unlikely to break 7 within the year?

I didn't expect the exchange rate market to be so strong, which also shows that the current market has exceeded the expectations of most people, including the expectations of institutions.

At this time, it is not a question of whether retail investors should consider entering the market; institutions also need to consider whether to increase their positions or enter the market based on the real-time changes of the market, so the market volume has suddenly increased.

(3) Finally, looking at the recent performance of the stock and exchange rate markets, it can be seen that the revaluation of Chinese assets has actually started.

These two days, the A-share market has been ahead of the surrounding market performance, which may only be a beginning and not the end.

What is more important is what is the biggest difference between this benefit and before?

In the past, when there were benefits, the market basically rose in advance, and funds entered the market in advance to pick up the bottom, but this time it was quiet, and the market was still experiencing a general decline the day before the big rise.

Does this mean that insider trading and information control are now doing very well?

Although the foreign network predicted the news that the interest rate on existing housing loans would be reduced, other benefits were not known in advance.

This is the biggest progress benefit of the current A-share market, indicating that the internal governance has been almost completed, and the A-share market will have a healthy and positive rebound environment.

2.

Today's turnover is not a big problem to break through the trillion, is it a surprise or a shock, and should we run when the volume is increased?

Before answering these two questions, let's first talk about the issue of volume: what does an increase in volume mean?

The turnover is the total amount of transactions between buyers and sellers, and an increase in turnover also means that the market's trading activity is increasing, so it is not that an increase in volume represents more selling, and buying is also quite a lot, and an increase in volume is a sign of a strong buying side, which is a bullish signal.

Looking at the turnover of the two cities this morning, the turnover has exceeded 400 billion in half an hour after the opening, and it is basically no suspense that today's turnover will break through the trillion.

Yesterday's volume was more than 900 billion, and today's continued increase in volume has broken through the trillion.

Now the market is in a stage of rising both in volume and price, so this is a normal rebound to do more, it is a surprise, not a shock.

Let's talk about the problem of thinking again, is there anyone who thinks it's time to run?

Everyone should remember one point: the real rebound process is actually the process of washing the plate, and the real process of making money is actually the process of trapping people; how should we understand this sentence?

The market has just experienced a round of decline, and the biggest disagreement and doubt during the rebound process, so many people will leave during the rise, which is a common point of human nature; when will people no longer be afraid?

That is, when it is confirmed that the market's money-making effect is very good, the mood is very lively, and it is easy to earn, it is basically the time to trap people.

In summary, it is the correspondence of fear and greed, I am greedy when others are afraid, and I am afraid when others are greedy.

Now do you think the index has risen a lot and the market's money-making effect is easy?

I think except for the CSI 300 index to recover the loss of the year, some weight components have risen a lot, and the rebound effect of many other stocks is not very good, so is this the end of the rebound?

My view has always been the same: (1) the current rebound is the weight to build the stage, and the theme and individual stocks sing the play after the National Day; (2) the big rebound has not ended, and it is inevitable that there will be selling pressure when approaching 3000 points in the short term, because there will definitely be people leaving, but this is a normal phenomenon in the process of rebound; there is no need to add positions to chase the rise of the index and weight at this time, and the bottom theme is still an opportunity; (3) what is the target of this round of rebound?

The target is still to see 3100 points, the target is not very high, and the probability of realization is very large; finally, I don't want everyone to become people who cut meat at 2700 points and chase the rise at 3100 points.